As I have been
mentioning for the last several weeks, the South
Metro Bulldog Club and "The Dawg Show" will be
co-hosting an away game viewing party for the
Georgia-Kentucky game this Saturday.
Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. and the Bulldog
faithful will be gathering at Locos Deli and Pub
at 1601 McDonough Place in the Geranium
City. Locos is located behind the red roof
car wash along Jonesboro Road between I-75 and
the McDonough square. Feel free to join us
at Locos this weekend, regardless of whether
you're a member of the Bulldog Club. Locos
is bringing in an extra big-screen T.V. for the
occasion and we anticipate a fun
gathering at which those present will
be given the chance to win Georgia-Georgia
Tech tickets.
If you see fit to join
us at Locos this weekend, what sort of game can
you expect to see? In answering that
question, I'm not going to give you a little bit
of information; I'm not going to give you just
the right amount of information; I'm going to
give you . . . Too Much Information.
THE PASSING
GAME
The Bulldogs boast the
S.E.C.'s second most potent passing offense
(247.2 passing yards per game), the league's
second most prolific passer (David Greene, who
averages 218.2 passing yards per game), and two
of the conference's top three receivers (Reggie
Brown, who has 39 receptions and
averages 84.2 receiving yards per game, and
Fred Gibson, who has 37 receptions and
averages 72.5 receiving yards per
game). Following a sub-par 2003 season in
which he threw 13 touchdown passes and 11
interceptions, Greene has tallied 15 touchdown
passes and one interception in 2004. Brown
and Gibson have five touchdown catches
apiece.
Greene is within
striking distance of several records.
Georgia's senior signal-caller is one
victory away from surpassing Peyton Manning as
the winningest starting quarterback in college
football history. Greene's next touchdown
pass will be his 68th T.D. throw, surpassing the
career mark for Georgia Q.B.s set by Eric Zeier
between 1991 and 1994. Greene's 1,349
career pass attempts place him 53 tosses shy of
tying Zeier for the school record in that
category and the Bulldogs' starting quarterback
is also closing in on Zeier's school marks
for career completions (838, 43 more than
Greene's 795) and career passing yards (11,153,
387 more than Greene's 10,766).
Kentucky, which became
known for its high-flying passing attack during
the days when Hal Mumme, Tim Couch, and Jared
Lorenzen had Lexington mailing addresses, today
ranks tenth in the S.E.C. in passing
offense. The Wildcats tally only 151.5
passing yards per game and their 4.9 yards per
pass attempt are the fewest in the league.
While the Bulldogs have amassed the
fourth-highest total of touchdown passes in the
conference (16), U.K. has connected on a
league-low four T.D. tosses.
Kentucky's leading
receiver, Glenn Holt, ranks fourth in the S.E.C.
in receptions per game, yet he has caught just
one touchdown pass all season. The
Wildcats' quarterback, senior Shane Boyd, ranks
eighth in the league with 135.1 passing yards
per game. Boyd is completing just 51.1 per
cent of his passes and he has thrown twice as
many interceptions (6) as touchdowns (3).
Fortunately for
Kentucky, the Wildcats are much better at pass
defense than they are at pass offense.
U.K. ranks third in the conference against the
pass, allowing only 160.9 aerial yards per
outing. Only Alabama and South Carolina
have given up fewer touchdowns through the air
than the seven passing scores permitted by the
'Cats, although only three teams in the league
give up more yards per pass attempt than
Kentucky (7.5). The Wildcat D has
intercepted 10 passes, giving U.K. the
fourth-most picks in the league. Georgia
allows 167.0 passing yards per game and has
given up nine touchdowns through the air.
THE RUNNING
GAME
Kentucky has the weakest
ground game in the S.E.C. The Wildcats'
107.8 rushing yards per game rank twelfth in the
conference and no team in the league has scored
fewer rushing touchdowns than
U.K. (9). Even taking into account
108 yards lost on sacks, Kentucky quarterback
Shane Boyd is his team's leading rusher with
36.0 yards per game on the ground. That
anemic rushing attack will face a Georgia
defense ranked fourth in the conference against
the run. The Bulldogs allow only 119.9
rushing yards per game and only Auburn has given
up fewer rushing touchdowns than the Red and
Black (4).
The Bulldogs move the
ball on the ground considerably better than the
Wildcats---the Red and Black average 165.2
rushing yards per game (eighth in the
conference)---but Georgia has scored only 10
rushing touchdowns in 2004. Danny Ware has
averaged 87.0 rushing yards per game (sixth
in the S.E.C.) in his rookie season. Both
Ware and fellow freshman Thomas Brown should get
the opportunity to shine against a Kentucky
defense ranked last in the Southeastern
Conference. The Wildcats give up almost
twice as many rushing yards per game as the
Bulldogs (232.0) and U.K. has surrendered more
rushing touchdowns than any other team in the
league (17). Don't be surprised if Brown
and Ware have over 100 rushing yards
apiece. In fact, I'll be surprised if they
don't.
THE KICKING
GAME
Georgia's Andy Bailey
has missed three field goal attempts from 45
yards or farther out, but he has split the
uprights on 11 of his 13 three-point tries of 40
or fewer yards' distance. The Bulldog
placekicker will take the field against a
Kentucky squad that has given up three points on
each of the last five consecutive field goals
attempted against the 'Cats.
U.K. kicker Taylor
Begley has missed three of his last
six field goal tries, while the Bulldogs'
opponents have missed seven of their last ten
field goal attempts against the Red and
Black.
Whenever Kentucky kicks
off to Georgia---which, hopefully, the Wildcats
will have to do only once---the resistible force
will meet the movable object. The Bulldogs
are last in the league in kickoff returns (15.8
yards per return) and U.K. is twelfth in the
conference in kickoff coverage (25.2 yards per
return allowed). If field position becomes
a factor, however, the 'Dawgs are apt to get the
upper hand (or, I guess, the upper paw), since
Kentucky neither punts the ball well (35.2 yards
per punt, eleventh in the conference) nor
returns punts well (3.7 yards per return,
twelfth in the conference).
COACHING
Uh, well, Mark
Richt's boss hasn't, like, felt the
need to state publicly that he isn't considering
firing his head football coach, or
something.
The same cannot be said
for Rich Brooks. Kentucky's athletic
director, Mitch "I Wish I Knew as Much About
College Football as Tony" Barnhart,
recently issued a statement (see http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/stewart_mandel/10/27/coaching.carousel/index.html) in
which he said, "We've got the coach we
want. We're not in the market for a
coach." That's the sort of statement an
athletic director wouldn't even have to make if
it were true, but, if Barnhart meant what he
said, perhaps he should spend a little less time
thinking about basketball.
Coach Brooks is 5-15 in
his career in the Commonwealth, including a 1-7
ledger this season, and his career
record over 20 years of coaching is
96-124-4. If Coach Brooks wins the last
three games of the 2004 campaign, goes
undefeated and wins the division, conference,
and national championships next fall, and wins
all eleven regular-season games the following
year, he will go into the 2006 S.E.C.
championship game with a 27-game winning streak,
yet he will still have a losing record
over the course of his career.
The reality is that
Mitch Barnhart hired Rich Brooks out of
retirement in a moment of panic after Guy
Morriss bolted for Baylor and U.K.'s ten or
twelve top choices all turned the job
down. Coach Brooks, who would have
been in the general vicinity of
his second semester as a freshman
at Oregon State on the day Mrs. Richt gave birth
to Mark, spent four years as the defensive
coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons and spent
the next two years living down the shame.
Coach Brooks is a three-time winner of the Slats
Gill Award, which goes to the sportsman of the
year in the Beaver State, and he is a 1995
inductee into the Independence Bowl hall of
fame. Personally, I think anyone who has
compiled such a resume has suffered enough
already, but, evidently, Rich Brooks is such a
glutton for punishment that he agreed to take
over a program whose two immediate past head
coaches were a guy who cheated but lost anyway
and another guy who used the job as a
steppingstone to coaching the Baylor
Bears.
How bad is Coach Brooks'
situation at Kentucky? It's so bad that
the school's athletic website (http://www.ukathletics.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=10336) is
reduced to bragging that, during the 2003
season, the Wildcats "made significant
improvement in reducing big plays . . . and held
nine consecutive opponents under 30 points"
during regulation play for the first time in 22
years. (Brian VanGorder has been Georgia's
defensive coordinator for 48 games and, during
his tenure, the 'Dawgs have allowed 30 or
more points exactly once, to a team that was one
game away from winning the national
championship.) Coach Brooks' situation in
Lexington is so bad that the U.K. website boasts
that he "has been very accessible to the media
as he works to enlarge the Wildcat fan
base."
Coach Brooks is so
neck-deep in a sea of awfulness that his pregame
press conference (http://www.ukathletics.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=39&url_article_id=14076&url_subchannel_id=&change_well_id=2)
contained remarks such as these: "Georgia
is a very talented team. They have great
team speed. This is another
nationally-ranked defensive unit, and they have
great offensive capabilities. Their
quarterback is an awfully accurate
thrower. He throws the ball extremely
well. They have good size and speed at
receiver, fast running backs and a big offensive
line. We’ve got our work cut out for us. .
. . I’m not seeing a lot of good things
right now. We’re not doing the things we’d
like to do on offense. It has been not
nearly as productive, other than one game
[against Indiana], which has turned out to be an
aberration where we threw the ball accurately,
we caught it well, we blocked well, we ran
well. Since that game, we haven’t caught
it as well, thrown it as well, or blocked as
well and that’s disappointing to me because I’d
like to believe as you go through a season, you
continue progress. There have been some
injuries that impacted that, and some
inexperience. We’re also playing very
talented, high-ranked teams. We are
totally unsatisfied with our offensive
production. I am extremely disappointed,
as is everyone else that follows Kentucky
football." Don't sugar-coat it like that,
coach, give it to us straight.
In short, Rich Brooks,
like Ron Zook before him, is a nice guy in a bad
situation. If Coach Brooks were Japanese,
he'd probably have to kill himself using a sword
and that ritual named after the Chicago Cubs'
late broadcaster. Meanwhile, Mark
Richt is in his fourth season as the head coach
in Athens, yet he is already one win away
from having the sixth-highest victory total of
any coach in Georgia history. Coach Brooks
has led Kentucky to victory just once in the
Wildcats' last 13 S.E.C. contests; Coach Richt
has led the Bulldogs to victory in all but one
of the Red and Black's last eight
regular-season conference games and he has an
overall record of 24-8 in league
play.
ODDS &
ENDS
The Wildcats' offensive
line has allowed the second-most sacks in the
league (21), while the Bulldogs' defensive front
has recorded the S.E.C.'s second-most
quarterback sacks (25) and the conference's most
sack yards (190). Georgia signal-callers
have been tackled for a loss a dozen times in
eight games (fifth-fewest in the S.E.C.)
and Kentucky has recorded the league's
sixth-fewest sacks (15).
Georgia ranks fourth in
the conference in total offense (412.5 yards per
game), whereas Kentucky ranks twelfth in the
league in that same category (259.2 yards per
game). The 'Dawgs have scored
twice as many touchdowns (26) as the
'Cats (13).
The Red and Black rank
fourth in the S.E.C. in total defense, allowing
only 286.9 yards per game. U.K. ranks
ninth in the league in that area, surrendering
392.9 yards per contest. Georgia has given
up the third-fewest touchdowns in the league
(13), but the Kentucky D has permitted
the third-highest number of touchdowns in the
conference (24).
The Bulldogs remain on
the right side of giveaway/takeaway, if only
barely so. Thanks to nine fumble
recoveries, Georgia stands at +1 in turnover
margin, although the Red and Black have fumbled
the ball away an alarming eight times. The
Wildcats, by contrast, have lost 13
fumbles---tied for the most in the
conference---and stand at -4 in turnover
margin.
Here are some
more encouraging words from Coach
Brooks: "I did not see the progress that I
would have hoped to see against Mississippi
State. It was a wash or a digression in
some situations. Some of our linemen who
had been playing fairly well didn’t play as well
on offense. A few people that have played
better on defense didn’t play as well. Our
punters struggled. So no, that wasn’t
progress." Don't look now, but Lou Holtz
may have competition for the 2004 Butts-Dooley
Memorial Trophy for Poor-Mouthing by an S.E.C.
Head Football Coach.
The Wildcats rank last
in the Southeastern Conference in time of
possession, holding the ball for just 27 minutes
and 46 seconds per game. The Bulldogs, who
rank third in time of possession (31:02 per
game), should have the opportunity to wear down
the U.K. defense in the fourth quarter.
In a related item, the
Wildcats have given up more points in the second
half in 2004 (127) than Kentucky has scored all
season (111). Likewise, U.K. has
surrendered more points in the fourth quarter
(67) than the 'Cats have scored in the second
half (57). The Bulldogs, by contrast,
remain on an even keel throughout the
game: Georgia has allowed 36 points in the
first quarter and 36 points in the fourth
quarter, while the 'Dawgs have scored 107 points
in the first half and 117 points in the second
half. The Red and Black remain most
dominant in the fifteen minutes immediately
following halftime, having outscored the
opposition 73-14 in the third quarter.
Georgia leads the
all-time series with Kentucky, sporting a
45-10-2 ledger against the Wildcats. The
'Dawgs have won 12 of their last 13
meetings with U.K., including seven in a
row. The Bulldogs are 12-3 against
Kentucky in Commonwealth Stadium but the Red and
Black have lost on three of their
last eight trips to Lexington. A
Georgia win on Saturday would make the Wildcats
just the fifth opponent the 'Dawgs have
beaten more than 45 times, after Vanderbilt
(46), Florida (46), Auburn (48), and
Georgia Tech (55).
The Georgia offense has
gained the fifth-most first downs in the league
(162), including the most passing first downs
(90). Kentucky ranks last in the S.E.C. in
first downs (123), having earned the
second-fewest rushing first downs (62) and the
second-fewest passing first downs (53) in the
conference. The Bulldog D has surrendered
the S.E.C.'s second-fewest passing first downs
(54), fifth-fewest rushing first downs
(57), and fourth-fewest first downs overall
(120). Kentucky ranks eighth in the league
in first downs allowed (152) and the Wildcats
have given up more rushing first downs (88) than
any other team in the conference.
One reason U.K. has
tallied so few first downs is the Wildcats'
inability to convert on third
down. No S.E.C. squad has run
more third down plays than
Kentucky (118) except South Carolina (119),
yet no team in the league has converted fewer
third downs than the Wildcats (36) except the
Rebels (34). Kentucky's 30.5 per cent
third-down conversion rate is the second-worst
in the conference. The Bulldogs allow
their opponents to convert just 28.7 per cent of
the third-down plays run against the Georgia
D.
In the 14 series
meetings between 1987 and 2000, the
Georgia-Kentucky game was decided by a margin
of seven or fewer points eight times,
with three of the remaining six contests
between the two schools being settled by under
twelve points. In three previous contests
against Big Blue in the Mark Richt era, the
'Dawgs have beaten U.K. by an average of almost
21 points per game.
The Bulldogs and the
Wildcats are virtually even in red zone
offense: Georgia scores on 78.8 per cent
of the Red and Black's trips inside the twenty
and Kentucky scores on 78.9 per cent of U.K.'s
drives inside the 20 yard line. However,
the 'Cats have made the league's second-fewest
red zone trips (19), are tied for the fewest red
zone scores (15), and have tallied the S.E.C.'s
fewest red zone touchdowns (11). The
'Dawgs, on the other hand, have made the
conference's fourth-most trips inside the twenty
(33), have amassed the league's fourth-most red
zone scores (26), and have tallied the S.E.C.'s
sixth-highest total of touchdowns in the red
zone (16).
Along similar lines,
Kentucky and Georgia rank first and second in
the league, respectively, in red zone
defense. The Wildcats have given up points
on 65.8 per cent of their opponents' drives
inside the twenty and the Bulldogs are only
slightly behind (66.7%). It is also true,
though, that U.K. has allowed the S.E.C.'s most
trips inside the red zone (38), the most red
zone scores (25), and the most red zone
touchdowns (18). The Red and Black, by
contrast, have allowed the league's
second-fewest red zone trips (15), have given up
the conference's second-fewest red zone
scores (10), and are tied for the S.E.C.'s
fewest red zone touchdowns
surrendered (7).
THE FEEL GOOD
STAT OF THE WEEK
Georgia ranks fifth in
the league in scoring offense.
The 'Dawgs average 28.0 points per game
overall, 20.0 points per game on the road, and
27.2 points per game against S.E.C.
competition. Mark Richt's offense has
scored more than 30 points four times in the
team's first eight games.
Georgia ranks fourth in
the conference in scoring defense. The Red
and Black are quite consistent in this respect,
permitting 15.4 points per game overall, 15.0
points per game away from Sanford Stadium, and
15.3 points per game in S.E.C. contests.
Brian VanGorder's defense has held five of
its last seven opponents to 16 or fewer
points.
Kentucky ranks last in
the league in scoring offense and last in the
league in scoring defense.
That's right, the
Wildcats are the worst squad in the S.E.C., both
at scoring and at preventing the opposition from
scoring. The Wildcats have scored the
fewest touchdowns (13) of any team in the
conference and they score an average of 13.9
points per game overall, 22.8 points per game at
home, and an anemic 8.8 points per game against
Southeastern Conference competition. U.K.
has also surrendered more
total touchdowns (29) than any other team
in the S.E.C. (including defensive and special
teams touchdowns) and the 'Cats give up
28.6 points per game overall, 29.3 points per
game at home, and 28.2 points per game against
conference opponents. Five of Kentucky's
first eight opponents put up 28 or more points
against U.K., while the Wildcats were limited to
17 or fewer points of their own in seven of
their first eight games.
All other things being
equal, when one team is pretty good at scoring
and at stopping the other guy from scoring, that
team typically will beat a team that is pretty
bad at scoring and at stopping the other guy
from scoring.
THE BOTTOM
LINE
The truth about
'Cats and 'Dawgs is that Georgia is more
talented, better coached, and more accustomed to
winning than Kentucky. The only fact
mitigating in U.K.'s favor is that this is a
classic sandwich game: the Bulldogs are
still enjoying the thrill of their win over
Florida and are starting to look ahead to
their showdown with Auburn. It would be
easy to overlook Kentucky as a legitimate
opponent.
I am confident that
Coach Richt will not allow the team to ignore
the game at hand. After what happened
against Tennessee following the big win over
L.S.U.---not to mention what happened to Texas
A&M last weekend, when the Aggies got caught
looking ahead to the Oklahoma game and wound up
losing to Baylor in overtime---I believe the
coaches will be able to get the players'
attention and keep them focused.
Auburn has the advantage
of an open date before facing Georgia; the
Bulldogs will need to use the contest with
Kentucky as a tune-up game to get ready for the
showdown on the Plains. David Greene has
looked increasingly sharp since the loss to
Tennessee and the Wildcats' rush defense is
exactly what Thomas Brown and Danny Ware need to
get rolling. I believe Georgia will look
like Georgia was supposed to look this season
and will cruise to victory in the
Commonwealth.
My
Prediction: Georgia 31, Kentucky
10.
Go
'Dawgs!