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As I have been mentioning for the last several weeks, the South Metro Bulldog Club and "The Dawg Show" will be co-hosting an away game viewing party for the Georgia-Kentucky game this Saturday.  Kickoff is slated for 12:30 p.m. and the Bulldog faithful will be gathering at Locos Deli and Pub at 1601 McDonough Place in the Geranium City.  Locos is located behind the red roof car wash along Jonesboro Road between I-75 and the McDonough square.  Feel free to join us at Locos this weekend, regardless of whether you're a member of the Bulldog Club.  Locos is bringing in an extra big-screen T.V. for the occasion and we anticipate a fun gathering at which those present will be given the chance to win Georgia-Georgia Tech tickets. 
 
If you see fit to join us at Locos this weekend, what sort of game can you expect to see?  In answering that question, I'm not going to give you a little bit of information; I'm not going to give you just the right amount of information; I'm going to give you . . . Too Much Information. 
 
THE PASSING GAME
 
The Bulldogs boast the S.E.C.'s second most potent passing offense (247.2 passing yards per game), the league's second most prolific passer (David Greene, who averages 218.2 passing yards per game), and two of the conference's top three receivers (Reggie Brown, who has 39 receptions and averages 84.2 receiving yards per game, and Fred Gibson, who has 37 receptions and averages 72.5 receiving yards per game).  Following a sub-par 2003 season in which he threw 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions, Greene has tallied 15 touchdown passes and one interception in 2004.  Brown and Gibson have five touchdown catches apiece. 
 
Greene is within striking distance of several records.  Georgia's senior signal-caller is one victory away from surpassing Peyton Manning as the winningest starting quarterback in college football history.  Greene's next touchdown pass will be his 68th T.D. throw, surpassing the career mark for Georgia Q.B.s set by Eric Zeier between 1991 and 1994.  Greene's 1,349 career pass attempts place him 53 tosses shy of tying Zeier for the school record in that category and the Bulldogs' starting quarterback is also closing in on Zeier's school marks for career completions (838, 43 more than Greene's 795) and career passing yards (11,153, 387 more than Greene's 10,766). 
 
Kentucky, which became known for its high-flying passing attack during the days when Hal Mumme, Tim Couch, and Jared Lorenzen had Lexington mailing addresses, today ranks tenth in the S.E.C. in passing offense.  The Wildcats tally only 151.5 passing yards per game and their 4.9 yards per pass attempt are the fewest in the league.  While the Bulldogs have amassed the fourth-highest total of touchdown passes in the conference (16), U.K. has connected on a league-low four T.D. tosses. 
 
Kentucky's leading receiver, Glenn Holt, ranks fourth in the S.E.C. in receptions per game, yet he has caught just one touchdown pass all season.  The Wildcats' quarterback, senior Shane Boyd, ranks eighth in the league with 135.1 passing yards per game.  Boyd is completing just 51.1 per cent of his passes and he has thrown twice as many interceptions (6) as touchdowns (3). 
 
Fortunately for Kentucky, the Wildcats are much better at pass defense than they are at pass offense.  U.K. ranks third in the conference against the pass, allowing only 160.9 aerial yards per outing.  Only Alabama and South Carolina have given up fewer touchdowns through the air than the seven passing scores permitted by the 'Cats, although only three teams in the league give up more yards per pass attempt than Kentucky (7.5).  The Wildcat D has intercepted 10 passes, giving U.K. the fourth-most picks in the league.  Georgia allows 167.0 passing yards per game and has given up nine touchdowns through the air. 
 
THE RUNNING GAME
 
Kentucky has the weakest ground game in the S.E.C.  The Wildcats' 107.8 rushing yards per game rank twelfth in the conference and no team in the league has scored fewer rushing touchdowns than U.K. (9).  Even taking into account 108 yards lost on sacks, Kentucky quarterback Shane Boyd is his team's leading rusher with 36.0 yards per game on the ground.  That anemic rushing attack will face a Georgia defense ranked fourth in the conference against the run.  The Bulldogs allow only 119.9 rushing yards per game and only Auburn has given up fewer rushing touchdowns than the Red and Black (4). 
 
The Bulldogs move the ball on the ground considerably better than the Wildcats---the Red and Black average 165.2 rushing yards per game (eighth in the conference)---but Georgia has scored only 10 rushing touchdowns in 2004.  Danny Ware has averaged 87.0 rushing yards per game (sixth in the S.E.C.) in his rookie season.  Both Ware and fellow freshman Thomas Brown should get the opportunity to shine against a Kentucky defense ranked last in the Southeastern Conference.  The Wildcats give up almost twice as many rushing yards per game as the Bulldogs (232.0) and U.K. has surrendered more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the league (17).  Don't be surprised if Brown and Ware have over 100 rushing yards apiece.  In fact, I'll be surprised if they don't. 
 
THE KICKING GAME
 
Georgia's Andy Bailey has missed three field goal attempts from 45 yards or farther out, but he has split the uprights on 11 of his 13 three-point tries of 40 or fewer yards' distance.  The Bulldog placekicker will take the field against a Kentucky squad that has given up three points on each of the last five consecutive field goals attempted against the 'Cats. 
 
U.K. kicker Taylor Begley has missed three of his last six field goal tries, while the Bulldogs' opponents have missed seven of their last ten field goal attempts against the Red and Black. 
 
Whenever Kentucky kicks off to Georgia---which, hopefully, the Wildcats will have to do only once---the resistible force will meet the movable object.  The Bulldogs are last in the league in kickoff returns (15.8 yards per return) and U.K. is twelfth in the conference in kickoff coverage (25.2 yards per return allowed).  If field position becomes a factor, however, the 'Dawgs are apt to get the upper hand (or, I guess, the upper paw), since Kentucky neither punts the ball well (35.2 yards per punt, eleventh in the conference) nor returns punts well (3.7 yards per return, twelfth in the conference). 
 
COACHING
 
Uh, well, Mark Richt's boss hasn't, like, felt the need to state publicly that he isn't considering firing his head football coach, or something. 
 
The same cannot be said for Rich Brooks.  Kentucky's athletic director, Mitch "I Wish I Knew as Much About College Football as Tony" Barnhart, recently issued a statement (see http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2004/writers/stewart_mandel/10/27/coaching.carousel/index.html) in which he said, "We've got the coach we want.  We're not in the market for a coach."  That's the sort of statement an athletic director wouldn't even have to make if it were true, but, if Barnhart meant what he said, perhaps he should spend a little less time thinking about basketball. 
 
Coach Brooks is 5-15 in his career in the Commonwealth, including a 1-7 ledger this season, and his career record over 20 years of coaching is 96-124-4.  If Coach Brooks wins the last three games of the 2004 campaign, goes undefeated and wins the division, conference, and national championships next fall, and wins all eleven regular-season games the following year, he will go into the 2006 S.E.C. championship game with a 27-game winning streak, yet he will still have a losing record over the course of his career. 
 
The reality is that Mitch Barnhart hired Rich Brooks out of retirement in a moment of panic after Guy Morriss bolted for Baylor and U.K.'s ten or twelve top choices all turned the job down.  Coach Brooks, who would have been in the general vicinity of his second semester as a freshman at Oregon State on the day Mrs. Richt gave birth to Mark, spent four years as the defensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons and spent the next two years living down the shame.  Coach Brooks is a three-time winner of the Slats Gill Award, which goes to the sportsman of the year in the Beaver State, and he is a 1995 inductee into the Independence Bowl hall of fame.  Personally, I think anyone who has compiled such a resume has suffered enough already, but, evidently, Rich Brooks is such a glutton for punishment that he agreed to take over a program whose two immediate past head coaches were a guy who cheated but lost anyway and another guy who used the job as a steppingstone to coaching the Baylor Bears. 
 
How bad is Coach Brooks' situation at Kentucky?  It's so bad that the school's athletic website (http://www.ukathletics.com/index.php?s=&change_well_id=2&url_article_id=10336) is reduced to bragging that, during the 2003 season, the Wildcats "made significant improvement in reducing big plays . . . and held nine consecutive opponents under 30 points" during regulation play for the first time in 22 years.  (Brian VanGorder has been Georgia's defensive coordinator for 48 games and, during his tenure, the 'Dawgs have allowed 30 or more points exactly once, to a team that was one game away from winning the national championship.)  Coach Brooks' situation in Lexington is so bad that the U.K. website boasts that he "has been very accessible to the media as he works to enlarge the Wildcat fan base." 
 
Coach Brooks is so neck-deep in a sea of awfulness that his pregame press conference (http://www.ukathletics.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=39&url_article_id=14076&url_subchannel_id=&change_well_id=2) contained remarks such as these:  "Georgia is a very talented team.  They have great team speed.  This is another nationally-ranked defensive unit, and they have great offensive capabilities.  Their quarterback is an awfully accurate thrower.  He throws the ball extremely well.  They have good size and speed at receiver, fast running backs and a big offensive line.  We’ve got our work cut out for us. . . .  I’m not seeing a lot of good things right now.  We’re not doing the things we’d like to do on offense.  It has been not nearly as productive, other than one game [against Indiana], which has turned out to be an aberration where we threw the ball accurately, we caught it well, we blocked well, we ran well.  Since that game, we haven’t caught it as well, thrown it as well, or blocked as well and that’s disappointing to me because I’d like to believe as you go through a season, you continue progress.  There have been some injuries that impacted that, and some inexperience.  We’re also playing very talented, high-ranked teams.  We are totally unsatisfied with our offensive production.  I am extremely disappointed, as is everyone else that follows Kentucky football."  Don't sugar-coat it like that, coach, give it to us straight. 
 
In short, Rich Brooks, like Ron Zook before him, is a nice guy in a bad situation.  If Coach Brooks were Japanese, he'd probably have to kill himself using a sword and that ritual named after the Chicago Cubs' late broadcaster.  Meanwhile, Mark Richt is in his fourth season as the head coach in Athens, yet he is already one win away from having the sixth-highest victory total of any coach in Georgia history.  Coach Brooks has led Kentucky to victory just once in the Wildcats' last 13 S.E.C. contests; Coach Richt has led the Bulldogs to victory in all but one of the Red and Black's last eight regular-season conference games and he has an overall record of 24-8 in league play. 
 
ODDS & ENDS
 
The Wildcats' offensive line has allowed the second-most sacks in the league (21), while the Bulldogs' defensive front has recorded the S.E.C.'s second-most quarterback sacks (25) and the conference's most sack yards (190).  Georgia signal-callers have been tackled for a loss a dozen times in eight games (fifth-fewest in the S.E.C.) and Kentucky has recorded the league's sixth-fewest sacks (15). 
 
Georgia ranks fourth in the conference in total offense (412.5 yards per game), whereas Kentucky ranks twelfth in the league in that same category (259.2 yards per game).  The 'Dawgs have scored twice as many touchdowns (26) as the 'Cats (13). 
 
The Red and Black rank fourth in the S.E.C. in total defense, allowing only 286.9 yards per game.  U.K. ranks ninth in the league in that area, surrendering 392.9 yards per contest.  Georgia has given up the third-fewest touchdowns in the league (13), but the Kentucky D has permitted the third-highest number of touchdowns in the conference (24). 
 
The Bulldogs remain on the right side of giveaway/takeaway, if only barely so.  Thanks to nine fumble recoveries, Georgia stands at +1 in turnover margin, although the Red and Black have fumbled the ball away an alarming eight times.  The Wildcats, by contrast, have lost 13 fumbles---tied for the most in the conference---and stand at -4 in turnover margin. 
 
Here are some more encouraging words from Coach Brooks:  "I did not see the progress that I would have hoped to see against Mississippi State.  It was a wash or a digression in some situations.  Some of our linemen who had been playing fairly well didn’t play as well on offense.  A few people that have played better on defense didn’t play as well.  Our punters struggled.  So no, that wasn’t progress."  Don't look now, but Lou Holtz may have competition for the 2004 Butts-Dooley Memorial Trophy for Poor-Mouthing by an S.E.C. Head Football Coach. 
 
The Wildcats rank last in the Southeastern Conference in time of possession, holding the ball for just 27 minutes and 46 seconds per game.  The Bulldogs, who rank third in time of possession (31:02 per game), should have the opportunity to wear down the U.K. defense in the fourth quarter. 
 
In a related item, the Wildcats have given up more points in the second half in 2004 (127) than Kentucky has scored all season (111).  Likewise, U.K. has surrendered more points in the fourth quarter (67) than the 'Cats have scored in the second half (57).  The Bulldogs, by contrast, remain on an even keel throughout the game:  Georgia has allowed 36 points in the first quarter and 36 points in the fourth quarter, while the 'Dawgs have scored 107 points in the first half and 117 points in the second half.  The Red and Black remain most dominant in the fifteen minutes immediately following halftime, having outscored the opposition 73-14 in the third quarter. 
 
Georgia leads the all-time series with Kentucky, sporting a 45-10-2 ledger against the Wildcats.  The 'Dawgs have won 12 of their last 13 meetings with U.K., including seven in a row.  The Bulldogs are 12-3 against Kentucky in Commonwealth Stadium but the Red and Black have lost on three of their last eight trips to Lexington.  A Georgia win on Saturday would make the Wildcats just the fifth opponent the 'Dawgs have beaten more than 45 times, after Vanderbilt (46), Florida (46), Auburn (48), and Georgia Tech (55). 
 
The Georgia offense has gained the fifth-most first downs in the league (162), including the most passing first downs (90).  Kentucky ranks last in the S.E.C. in first downs (123), having earned the second-fewest rushing first downs (62) and the second-fewest passing first downs (53) in the conference.  The Bulldog D has surrendered the S.E.C.'s second-fewest passing first downs (54), fifth-fewest rushing first downs (57), and fourth-fewest first downs overall (120).  Kentucky ranks eighth in the league in first downs allowed (152) and the Wildcats have given up more rushing first downs (88) than any other team in the conference. 
 
One reason U.K. has tallied so few first downs is the Wildcats' inability to convert on third down.  No S.E.C. squad has run more third down plays than Kentucky (118) except South Carolina (119), yet no team in the league has converted fewer third downs than the Wildcats (36) except the Rebels (34).  Kentucky's 30.5 per cent third-down conversion rate is the second-worst in the conference.  The Bulldogs allow their opponents to convert just 28.7 per cent of the third-down plays run against the Georgia D. 
 
In the 14 series meetings between 1987 and 2000, the Georgia-Kentucky game was decided by a margin of seven or fewer points eight times, with three of the remaining six contests between the two schools being settled by under twelve points.  In three previous contests against Big Blue in the Mark Richt era, the 'Dawgs have beaten U.K. by an average of almost 21 points per game. 
 
The Bulldogs and the Wildcats are virtually even in red zone offense:  Georgia scores on 78.8 per cent of the Red and Black's trips inside the twenty and Kentucky scores on 78.9 per cent of U.K.'s drives inside the 20 yard line.  However, the 'Cats have made the league's second-fewest red zone trips (19), are tied for the fewest red zone scores (15), and have tallied the S.E.C.'s fewest red zone touchdowns (11).  The 'Dawgs, on the other hand, have made the conference's fourth-most trips inside the twenty (33), have amassed the league's fourth-most red zone scores (26), and have tallied the S.E.C.'s sixth-highest total of touchdowns in the red zone (16). 
 
Along similar lines, Kentucky and Georgia rank first and second in the league, respectively, in red zone defense.  The Wildcats have given up points on 65.8 per cent of their opponents' drives inside the twenty and the Bulldogs are only slightly behind (66.7%).  It is also true, though, that U.K. has allowed the S.E.C.'s most trips inside the red zone (38), the most red zone scores (25), and the most red zone touchdowns (18).  The Red and Black, by contrast, have allowed the league's second-fewest red zone trips (15), have given up the conference's second-fewest red zone scores (10), and are tied for the S.E.C.'s fewest red zone touchdowns surrendered (7). 
 
THE FEEL GOOD STAT OF THE WEEK
 
Georgia ranks fifth in the league in scoring offense.  The 'Dawgs average 28.0 points per game overall, 20.0 points per game on the road, and 27.2 points per game against S.E.C. competition.  Mark Richt's offense has scored more than 30 points four times in the team's first eight games. 
 
Georgia ranks fourth in the conference in scoring defense.  The Red and Black are quite consistent in this respect, permitting 15.4 points per game overall, 15.0 points per game away from Sanford Stadium, and 15.3 points per game in S.E.C. contests.  Brian VanGorder's defense has held five of its last seven opponents to 16 or fewer points. 
 
Kentucky ranks last in the league in scoring offense and last in the league in scoring defense. 
 
That's right, the Wildcats are the worst squad in the S.E.C., both at scoring and at preventing the opposition from scoring.  The Wildcats have scored the fewest touchdowns (13) of any team in the conference and they score an average of 13.9 points per game overall, 22.8 points per game at home, and an anemic 8.8 points per game against Southeastern Conference competition.  U.K. has also surrendered more total touchdowns (29) than any other team in the S.E.C. (including defensive and special teams touchdowns) and the 'Cats give up 28.6 points per game overall, 29.3 points per game at home, and 28.2 points per game against conference opponents.  Five of Kentucky's first eight opponents put up 28 or more points against U.K., while the Wildcats were limited to 17 or fewer points of their own in seven of their first eight games. 
 
All other things being equal, when one team is pretty good at scoring and at stopping the other guy from scoring, that team typically will beat a team that is pretty bad at scoring and at stopping the other guy from scoring. 
 
THE BOTTOM LINE
 
The truth about 'Cats and 'Dawgs is that Georgia is more talented, better coached, and more accustomed to winning than Kentucky.  The only fact mitigating in U.K.'s favor is that this is a classic sandwich game:  the Bulldogs are still enjoying the thrill of their win over Florida and are starting to look ahead to their showdown with Auburn.  It would be easy to overlook Kentucky as a legitimate opponent. 
 
I am confident that Coach Richt will not allow the team to ignore the game at hand.  After what happened against Tennessee following the big win over L.S.U.---not to mention what happened to Texas A&M last weekend, when the Aggies got caught looking ahead to the Oklahoma game and wound up losing to Baylor in overtime---I believe the coaches will be able to get the players' attention and keep them focused. 
 
Auburn has the advantage of an open date before facing Georgia; the Bulldogs will need to use the contest with Kentucky as a tune-up game to get ready for the showdown on the Plains.  David Greene has looked increasingly sharp since the loss to Tennessee and the Wildcats' rush defense is exactly what Thomas Brown and Danny Ware need to get rolling.  I believe Georgia will look like Georgia was supposed to look this season and will cruise to victory in the Commonwealth. 
 
My Prediction:  Georgia 31, Kentucky 10. 
 
Go 'Dawgs!